Doha – The six largest economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-6) – Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines – have experienced rapid growth due to their strong integration into global trade networks. However, rising trade tensions and new tariffs pose potential risks to their economies. This is according to a recent economic commentary by QNB.
Since Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency in January 2025, global trade disputes have intensified. Trump’s trade policies prioritize national self-sufficiency and view trade deficits as a drain on national wealth. As a result, countries with large trade surpluses against the U.S. are at risk of facing new tariffs. The U.S. has already imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, sparking concerns over escalating protectionism and retaliatory measures.
Despite these challenges, ASEAN-6 economies are well-positioned to withstand potential tariff wars. Three key factors support this assessment:
Limited Direct Exposure to U.S. Tariffs: While Vietnam and Thailand had significant trade surpluses with the U.S. in 2024 ($125 billion and $35 billion, respectively), they remain less exposed compared to China ($300 billion) or Mexico ($172 billion). Therefore, this makes them less likely to be primary targets of U.S. tariffs in the short term.
Trade Diversification and Shifting Investment Flows: Trade tensions between the U.S. and China are prompting global companies to shift investments and supply chains to ASEAN nations. This benefits ASEAN exporters, as their products become more competitive in the U.S. market compared to Chinese goods. Additionally, many multinational corporations are relocating production facilities from China to ASEAN countries. They aim to circumvent U.S. tariffs.
Resilient Economic Growth: Despite global trade uncertainties, ASEAN-6 economies continue to show strong growth momentum. Forecasts for real GDP growth in 2025 have remained stable or improved over the past year. Moreover, governments in the region are also investing in major infrastructure and capital expenditure projects. This attracts private sector investment and further strengthens economic resilience.
Overall, the ASEAN-6 economies remain largely shielded from global trade disruptions. Their ability to avoid direct tariff threats, benefit from shifting trade flows, and maintain solid economic growth ensures they are well-prepared to navigate the evolving global trade landscape.
