Saudi Arabia’s National Center for Meteorology (NCM) and the Climate Change Center (CCC) have warned that El Niño conditions are increasingly likely to develop later this year and continue into early 2027.
The agencies said the Kingdom is currently in a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the Niño 3.4 Index recorded at +0.39°C as of July 5.
Forecasts indicate a high probability that El Niño will emerge in the coming months, with the Niño 3.4 Index expected to exceed +0.8°C and potentially reach around +1.25°C, with the possibility of strengthening further.
Climate models also project sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region to increase from +1.1°C in May to approximately +2.8°C by October.
The agencies said western Saudi Arabia could see increased rainfall and a higher risk of flash floods during the autumn season. Parts of central Saudi Arabia are also expected to receive more rainfall during the winter of 2026-27, while the southwestern highlands may experience above-average rainfall next spring.
Temperatures across the Kingdom are forecast to remain above seasonal averages, with hotter days and nights, more frequent heatwaves during summer as well as autumn, and a warmer-than-usual winter with fewer extreme cold spells.
